IMF in Indonesia: Power for Few, Debt for All
by Abid Aslam
Indonesia has broken down - its cities, political
system, and economy rocked by the worst violence since President
Suharto took power in 1965 - but the International Monetary Fund
(IMF) remains unmoved.
The IMF controls Indonesia's 43-billion-dollar international
bail-out, agreed last November after the rupiah dropped 70 percent
against the U.S. dollar in a little over four months. Three billion
dollars in emergency loans, to help service foreign debts and
shore up the country's sagging reserves, were disbursed before
the Fund's agreement with the government in Jakarta fell apart
over steps to be taken in exchange for the money.
Another one billion dollars was released early this
month, after the sides signed their third agreement in six months.
In exchange for the loan, Jakarta agreed cut fuel subsidies, ratchet
up banking and financial sector reforms, and dismantle monopolies
held by Suharto's friends and family.
Suharto had told the IMF he did not want to lift
the subsidies until Athe right moment.'' Fund and U.S. officials
understood that moment would follow his confirmation by parliament
as president for another five years. Suharto was confirmed in
March, agreed to a new deal in April, got one billion dollars
May 4, and cut the subsidies. Then all hell broke loose.
Rioting throughout the country culminated in a day
of violence Friday May 15, when 500 people were believed to have
died in Jakarta alone. The government said the same day prices
of various fuels - having been raised between 25 percent and 71
percent - would be lowered between eight percent and 20 percent.
The bail-out had broken down again. IMF staff left
Indonesia, following evacuations by foreign embassies and companies,
and an IMF mission to Jakarta scheduled for the weekend of May
16-17 was postponed. The United States - the Fund's largest shareholder
- and European countries delayed payment of 1.4 billion dollars
in bail-out funds from the Asian Development Bank.
U.S. officials said privately the IMF's macroecon-omic
assumptions and targets likely would have to be revised and that,
in any case, the next one billion dollars in IMF money, due in
early June, probably would be put off. (They said so publicly
the following week, and the World Bank on May 18 scrubbed an executive
board vote, scheduled for the following day, on a one-billion-dollar
structural adjustment loan as well as 225 million dollars for
poverty alleviation programmes.)
Nevertheless, the programme itself Ais still very
much appropriate for Indonesia's economic situation, and for restoring
confidence and bringing about a resumption of economic growth,''
an IMF spokeswoman said May 15.
"We are monitoring developments in Indonesia
closely and hope that all sides will exercise restraint,'' the
IMF spokeswoman said. "We do not, however, feel it would
be appropriate to comment at this stage on what are internal political
issues.''
The IMF had weighed in on those issues by pushing
its wide-ranging reforms and officials had acknowledged some measures
would meet popular resistance. But they had insisted it was Jakarta's
job to deal with the fall-out.
"It is paradoxical that the IMF is willing
to dictate terms to Suharto when it comes to managing the economy
but not when it comes to fundamental economic rights,'' an Indonesian
human rights worker and researcher using the pseudonym 'Aryati'
told a Congressional committee early this month.
AWhile it is apparently acceptable to the IMF that
political power is monopolised, it absolutely insists that the
debt be democratically distributed,'' Aryati added.
Economic development had become the government's
religion, she told lawmakers. ABut what do we have to show for
thirty years of development? Two hundred families have fat Swiss
bank accounts while millions...have had their land expropriated....And
we have not heard their laments precisely because there has been
no freedom to criticise what the state calls its development programme.''
The IMF has been complicit in muzzling dissent because
it has required political stability, not reform, according to
Emmy Hafild, executive director of WALHI, the Indonesian Forum
for the Environment.
Western and Asian officials, seeking to prop up
the programme, had held talks with Suharto's government but declined
to meet independents or the opposition, Hafild said. As a result,
they had strengthened the notion that only Suharto - and repressive
elements within the government - could guarantee that stability.
By May 15, U.S. officials suggested Suharto may
have become too weak to implement the IMF programme - but upheld
its goals. Indonesia needs Aa vigorous programme of economic reform
as proposed by the IMF and political reform shaped through dialogue
between the government and its citizens,'' said State Department
spokesman James Rubin.
But what of the programme itself? Since December,
World Bank chief economist and Senior Vice President for Development
Economics Joseph Stiglitz repeatedly - if sometimes indirectly
- has assailed the IMF effort as off-target because it is aimed
at government fiscal and monetary policy in countries with some
of the world's highest savings rates and most conservative fiscal
policies.
Worse, the programme has courted full-scale depression
by driving down social spending even as it added to the erosion
of citizens' incomes (for example, by insisting Indonesia export
its way out of trouble and emphasising cheap labor as 'competitive').
AVirtually every American economist rejects the balanced-budget
principle during a recession,'' Stiglitz said earlier this year.
AWhy should we ignore this when giving advice to other countries?''
He has since insisted his remarks were intended to spur academic
debate.
Indonesia's debt problem, even IMF officials agree,
stems from the private sector, which owes in excess of 70 billion
dollars to overseas lenders. However, the Suharto regime, using
opaque accounting practices, had quietly funneled money from its
reserves to shore up those loans, fueling the crisis.
Foreign banks that now want their money back from
Indonesian companies so far have failed to resolve their claims
using a formula applied in Mexico in the early 1980s.
Few disagree that Indonesia must dismantle its 'crony
capitalism' but, according to the editors of 'Business Week' magazine,
in a commentary addressed to the IMF, ATo restart its economic
engine, Asia needs deep structural change that promotes markets
and breaks up elite power, not out-of-date contractionary policies
that put common people out of work.''
Eight million Indonesians are without jobs and 12
million are expected to have been laid off by the time the IMF's
restructuring takes full force. There are five dependents to every
worker, according to demographic data. Prices rose 25 percent
in the first quarter of this year alone.
The proportion of Indonesians living below the international
poverty line of one dollar per day has fallen from around 60 percent
to 11 percent over the past 30 years, according to the World Bank.
But most of those boosted out of absolute poverty ended up with
only about two dollars per day - in rupiah, of course, which dropped
20 percent in value in the week to May 15.
Abid Aslam covers international financial institutions
for Inter Press Service in Washington. This article, originally
written on May 17, was adapted with permission.
|